Another look a Taiwan, some discomforting numbers

Taiwan was very successful at containing spread of COVID-19. As of May 17th, out of accumulated 440 cases, 349 are imported and 55 are local spread, 36 are naval crew. Airport health checks were imposed as early as December 31th 2019, further restrictions and quarantine for all arrivals from all countries followed soon after that. The early reaction clearly paid off, local spread was minimized and the most "drastic" measure that had to be imposed so far was prolonging school holidays by 2 weeks in February.

Till May 11th there were 7 dead, 4 of those from imported cases. Counting only the imported cases we have exact knowledge of the number of infections and can estimate an IFR mortality of 1.2%  (assuming that the quarantine measures were mostly effective at detecting infection cases) . This is a surprisingly high mortality given that most of the dead were in their 40ies to 60ies and obviously fit to travel long distance flights. Even worse, a large share of the imported cases were people working abroad in their 20s-30s

Press releases from the Taiwan CDC : https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En/Bulletin/List/7tUXjTBf6paRvrhEl-mrPg?page=1

One particularly strange case of protracted course is https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En/Bulletin/Detail/luxJ7okGbOKlEDqtYUgysA?typeid=158


Bellow some details about the deaths:

16.2 : https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202002160012
first dead: a 61-year-old male, had Hepatitis B and diabetes, had not traveled overseas recently and no known contact with COVID-19 patients, was a taxi driver who had many customers that regularly travel to and from China, Hong Kong and Macau.

20.3: https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202003200017
second death: man in his 80s, who had no recent history of overseas travel, diabetes and was on kidney dialysis.

30.3 : https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202003300004
third death: a patient in his 40s, was confirmed on March 19 to have contracted the coronavirus after he led a group tour to Austria and the Czech Republic March 5-14. Was not listed as in critical condition before his death.

30.3 : https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202003300014 , https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3907086
two  deaths : a woman in her 50s (infected locally in hospital cluster), and a man in his 60s with a history of recent travel to Spain

The male patient visited Spain with a tour group March 12-20 and tested positive for the coronavirus on March 23 after he returned to Taiwan with a cough and fever.

10.4 : https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202004100008

one death: a patient in his 70s. The man, who suffered from underlying conditions, was part of a tour group that visited Egypt from March 3-12. He started displaying symptoms on March 17 and was confirmed positive on March 19. The man's condition started to deteriorate on March 20 when he suffered breathing difficulties and was transferred to the intensive care unit, passed away April 9.

11.5. : https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202005110012 https://www.cdc.gov.tw/En/Bulletin/Detail/GBNcOUGOrevC4GT_-pzLrg?typeid=158
one death: a man in his 40s, had been in the United States to visit family, and after he returned to Taiwan he developed symptoms typical of the disease on March 19. He then went to see a doctor on March 21 and tested positive for COVID-19 on March 24. The patient did not have a history of chronic illnesses.